By supporting collaboration between sectors, governments can help improve well-being and advance prosperity.
How we govern and serve
Governments must evolve to serve people’s changing needs
As climate change and other megatrends alter human needs, businesses and governments are working together in new ways to improve people’s lives.
Consider how mounting weather disasters and demographic shifts are stoking demand for affordable, resilient housing. Construction companies are creating solutions through innovative partnerships: with manufacturers to fabricate cost-effective modular structures and with energy firms to install onsite renewables. And governments are igniting even more innovation by supporting materials research, updating energy codes and investing in infrastructure.
The Govern and Serve domain enables activity in every other domain.
As sectores configure, it’s helpful to think of governments and public institutions as belonging to a broad Govern and Serve domain, one that enables the fulfillment of human needs through its own actions and through interactions with other domains. For example, by installing the IOT-networking infrastructure needed for smart-city systems, the Govern and Serve domain can foster new opportunities in the Build and Move domains. In the Make domain, public-sector procurement could hasten the development of sustainable materials. In the Care domain, the public sector could partner with medtech companies to develop AI-driven health diagnostics.
The activities of governments and the public sector—considered alone, together, and in conjunction with private industry—generate considerable value for the global economy. In our baseline projections for growth, the Govern and Serve domain could contribute US$17.42 trillion to global GDP in 2035.
Capturing the value in the decade ahead
Effective collaboration between the public and private sectors can yield sizeable benefits for economies - and citizens.
The extent of that growth will depend on how megatrends play out.
To paint a quantitative picture of the future, we modelled the Govern and Serve domain’s growth under three divergent scenarios. In our baseline projections for growth, the Govern and Serve domain could contribute US$17.42 trillion to global GDP in 2035. But that contribution could also be 11.0% higher, rising to $19.33 trillion, depending on how the two most pressing global megatrends, technological disruption and climate change, shape the need and context for government services.
Sizing the Govern and Serve opportunity
The nature and scale of the opportunities that emerge for governments and supporting organisations in the Govern and Serve domain will depend on how AI adoption and climate action progress. Your strategy should account for a range of possible outcomes. Three scenarios can help leaders in the Govern and Serve domain consider what the future might bring.
Trust-Based Transformation
Global alignment | Responsible Tech | Sustainable Solutions
Encouraged by greater global cohesion, governments adopt competing but directionally similar interoperability standards that allow transformative technologies to scale. And underpinned by secure, resilient tech infrastructure, those governments and other public-sector organisations enact real-time, data-driven policies. Global alignment on financial incentives for climate solutions strengthens innovation ecosystems and promotes implementation at the full scale needed to reach net-zero targets.
Who succeeds?
A government looking to position itself as a leading green trading hub renovates its ports. A dynamic management system interfaces with smart infrastructure, including a sensor network, digital twin technology and robotic cranes. The system monitors and optimises operations and communicates with stakeholders. Powered by renewables and on-site energy storage, it analyses global demand and supply trends, predicts disruptions, and arranges direct onward transport via automated vehicle systems.
Tense Transition
Regional alignment | Fragmented Tech | Subscale sustainability
Governments seek to balance national interests with global economic integration. A growing number of essential services, like education, are delivered through national sovereign technologies and local public–private partnerships. Regionally coordinated tech regulations help limit misinformation and job displacement, which improves citizen trust but hinders innovation and growth. Local investment in sustainability projects promotes environmental stewardship, even as progress towards net-zero targets slows for lack of effective action on a global scale.
Who succeeds?
A local partnership between a municipal government and an agricultural company yields a drones-as-a-service offering. The initiative develops infrastructure, such as communication networks and data centres, for scaled deployment, as well as a consumer-facing platform. A new ‘drone swarm’ capability provides real-time intelligence that can monitor energy systems and other critical infrastructure and improve disaster response. The consumer platform verifies sustainable farming practices and handles deliveries of fresh produce to households.
Turbulent Times
Atomised interests | Disruptive and divisive tech | Suspended sustainability
Governments reprioritise their responsibilities, placing more focus on securing national interests and reacting to immediate crises. As global conflicts play out, some regions enact protectionist policies that limit both climate and economic migration. Unregulated technological development leads to advances in AI and other areas but also exacerbates climate change by increasing fossil fuel use. Geopolitical instability drives adoption of alternative currencies, adding volatility to financial markets that affects monetary policy and tax revenues.
Who succeeds?
As governments divert resources to crisis management, the quality of public education declines. With public-sector support, a private-sector company develops a micro-education platform offering personalised, data-driven learning. When frequent data breaches threaten the business, a government authority steps in and engages a cyber stress-testing company to assess vulnerabilities and develop quality assurance frameworks that safeguard and support citizens.
Learn more about the three divergent tomorrows
To reinvent for multiple tomorrows, take action today
The process of reinvention needs to start now, with a focus on priorities that respond to the reconfiguration that’s already underway. This means driving hard towards a set of innovation imperatives, securing competitive advantages in areas such as technology and trust, and turning obstacles such as climate threats into enablers of growth.
How to win in the Govern and Serve domain
Explore all new domains
Select from the nine domains below to learn how they are forming, the size of the opportunity and how to seize the value in motion.
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