How we fuel and power

The industries that enable global progress are transforming

The long-established value chains that transform fossil fuels into electrons and molecules that fuel our world still define the global energy industry. But the system is rapidly evolving, as climate change forces a fundamental rethink—and technological innovations create new opportunities.

As it shifts to incorporate more zero-carbon electricity and new low- and no-carbon fuels, the energy system must ensure reliable access to energy for a growing global population, and low-cost power sources to enable industries to meet rising living standards. Critical sectors such as steel, chemicals, fertiliser and plastics drive demand for fossil fuels. Investment is climbing in companies working on alternative fuels; power storage; transmission infrastructure; and new technology, such as AI and analytics, that can identify and drive efficiency.

The value of the Fuel and Power domain is projected to reach US$6.19 trillion by 2035.

As supply and demand for vital resources grow, value will be created in fundamentally different ways. AI, which will increase electricity demand, can be deployed to help manage grids, drive efficiency and lower costs simultaneously. Other modes of value creation that are nascent today, such as sustainable fuels and green hydrogen, will need to scale dramatically.

Capturing the value in the decade ahead

Businesses that grasp the full potential of the Fuel and Power domain will have the edge in 2035.

The extent of that growth will depend on how megatrends play out.

To paint a quantitative picture of the future, we modelled the Fuel and Power domain’s growth under three divergent scenarios, focusing in particular on the impact of technological disruption, specifically from AI, and climate change. Depending on the assumptions, the size of the domain in 2035 could range from a low of $6.03 trillion to a high of $6.46 trillion.

Sizing the Fuel and Power opportunity

The nature and scale of the new business opportunities that emerge in the Fuel and Power domain will depend on how AI adoption and climate action progress. Your strategy should account for a range of possible outcomes. Three scenarios can help leaders in the Fuel and Power domain consider what the future might bring.

Trust-Based Transformation

Global alignment | Responsible Tech | Sustainable Solutions

A global coalition of leading nations collaborates to make progress on sustainability goals. AI deployment delivers effective energy-efficiency measures to the point where its rising energy use effectively pays for itself and compensates for the increased demand that these technologies require. Global mechanisms are put in place to fund emissions reductions efforts for industries and countries that may lack the resources.

Who succeeds?

A developer of smart electricity grids and power storage taps into the vast sums of capital available for infrastructure investments in combination with support from multilateral development agencies, such as the UN or World Bank, to lower risks. It builds undersea transmission lines, monitored by AI-enabled IOT devices, that permit greater balancing of the grid between North Africa and Southern Europe, between Australia and Southeast Asia, and across the Middle East and connecting into the Indian subcontinent.

Tense Transition

Regional alignment | Fragmented Tech | Subscale sustainability

Amid fragmented regulation and nationalistic policies around selective technologies, companies build local markets and seek to secure vital supplies via direct cross-border relationships. Larger end users increasingly take responsibility for building, managing and securing their own supplies of energy. Governments implement price controls on transport fuel to maintain social stability.

Who succeeds?

In response to significant regional differences in carbon-reduction mandates and incentives, a global oil and gas producer optimises the carbon intensity of conventional resources—capturing carbon at facilities in some geographies, and focusing on fuels with lower emission grades in other areas. It strikes deals directly with manufacturers to provide fixed supplies, coupled with energy management services. And it finds a new business by applying engineering skills built up in fracking to low-carbon solutions like geothermal.

Turbulent Times

Atomised interests | Disruptive and divisive tech | Suspended sustainability

The unbridled growth of AI creates rising demand for electricity that is difficult to meet. Regulations focus on energy security and affordability over sustainability, and weaker institutions lead to a decline in environmental enforcement. Financing decarbonisation in hard-to-abate sectors comes under increasing fiscal budgetary pressure, but the desire to protect local jobs and strategic autonomy will provide a counterweight.

Who succeeds?

A utility teams up with an operator of data centres to ensure reliability and efficiency. The utility deploys AI-based predictive energy management to control heating and cooling at the facilities. The data centre operator takes aggressive measures to reduce demand throughout its operations, to avoid supply disruptions, while developing the flexibility to toggle between renewables and conventional fuels depending on which are cheapest.

Learn more about the three divergent tomorrows

Learn more

To reinvent for multiple tomorrows, take action today

The process of reinvention needs to start now, with a focus on priorities that respond to the reconfiguration that’s already underway. This means driving hard towards a set of innovation imperatives, securing competitive advantages in areas such as technology and trust, and turning obstacles such as climate threats into enablers of growth.

Video 13/07/25