As the world confronts medical challenges, the healthcare sector must provide care at scale that is effective, affordable, preventative and personalised.

How we care

A value-rich domain is forming centred on caring for humans

Historically, healthcare organisations—hospitals, clinics, life sciences companies and insurance providers—operated in distinct fields. But global megatrends, including AI and climate change, are rapidly reshaping what people require from healthcare systems and how these needs can be met. At the same time, science and technology are expanding possibilities.

Large and familiar value pools—such as health insurance and medical data—will grow and evolve significantly, and more nascent sectors, like personalised medicine and B2B-focused medtech, will gain momentum. Digital technologies, particularly AI, promise to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of medical practices by providing advanced diagnostic tools, predictive analytics and virtual care. With companies already embracing such efforts, up to US$216 billion of healthcare revenues could be redistributed in 2025. By 2035, the Care domain could grow to contribute $9.31 trillion to global GDP—7% of total output.

Capturing the value in the decade ahead

Businesses that grasp the full potential of the Care domain will have the edge in 2035.

The extent of that growth will depend on how megatrends play out.

To obtain a quantitative picture of what the Care domain might look like in 2035, we modelled the potential global economic impact of two of the most pressing megatrends: technological disruption (specifically disruption from AI) and climate change. The result is three divergent scenarios, corresponding to a range of outcomes, from a low of $9.38 trillion to a high of $10.56 trillion.

Sizing the Care opportunity

The nature and scale of the new business opportunities that emerge in the Care domain will depend on how AI adoption and climate action progress. Your strategy should account for a range of possible outcomes. Three scenarios can help leaders in the Care domain consider what the future might bring.

Trust-Based Transformation

Global alignment | Responsible Tech | Sustainable Solutions

Organisations invest in equitable solutions such as sliding-scale payment models and products specifically designed for underserved populations. With larger volumes of patient data analysed more quickly, the efficacy of treatments improves. Regulators advance data, science and collaboration to the point where drugs are approved (or rejected) in months rather than years.

Who succeeds?

A concierge medical service pairs members with a series of AI agents that function as primary care physicians and specialists. It creates causal digital twins of patients that enable physicians to figure out whether a medicine can work for them before prescribing it.

Tense Transition

Regional alignment | Fragmented Tech | Subscale sustainability

The system prioritises basic survival and national stability over expansive innovation and global equity. Preventative care is narrowly focused on national priorities, with government-funded vaccine programmes and screenings targeting diseases deemed critical for public health resilience. AI-enabled solutions are deployed primarily to optimise workflows, and strict data-localisation laws limit global collaboration. Businesses are incentivised to develop scalable health solutions that address immediate needs.

Who succeeds?

A healthtech company contracts with the government to develop an AI-driven app to manage national vaccination programmes—automatically scheduling and summoning citizens to appointments. Users are directed to affordable telehealth appointments with physician assistants who recommend standard treatments. The company is compensated in part based on its success in fending off or minimising cross-border breakouts of communicable diseases.

Turbulent Times

Atomised interests | Disruptive and divisive tech | Suspended sustainability

Innovations primarily benefit a select few while the rest struggle with declining quality and limited resources. Companies race to monetise proprietary AI systems, data insights and value-added services. Specialised care, such as AI-driven diagnostics or precision treatments, is a lucrative market, especially for firms targeting high-income demographics. A weak regulatory environment allows rapid experimentation and innovation but introduces risks of ethical lapses and diminished trust.

Who succeeds?

A concierge medical practice offers patients continual daily check-ins. AI chatbots recommend personalised daily diets and exercise regimens and communicate with clients in real time when they deviate from plans. It partners with pharmaceutical companies to offer access to trials for personalised therapies.

Learn more about the three divergent tomorrows

Learn more

To reinvent for multiple tomorrows, take action today

The process of reinvention needs to start now, with a focus on priorities that respond to the reconfiguration that’s already underway. This means driving hard towards a set of innovation imperatives, securing competitive advantages in areas such as technology and trust, and turning obstacles such as climate threats into enablers of growth.

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