The agri-food system is at a pivot point. Feeding 10 billion people at mid-century will require a cross-sector push for innovation in the decade ahead.
How we feed ourselves
The food system must be reconfigured to deliver abundance, resilience and sustainability
Today’s food system is a complex global network: farmers produce, traders distribute, manufacturers process, retailers sell, and the public sector supports and regulates to make food available daily. It’s also a system under pressure. Climate perils such as drought and heat stress threaten crops. The scarcity of water, arable land and other key resources is mounting. Food waste and loss eliminate one-third of what is produced for people to eat. All of these will be critical challenges as the global population nears 10 billion in 2050.
The answers to many of the challenges facing our food system will come from cooperative innovation. We must simultaneously scale technology, mechanisation and sustainability in farming; reduce waste and make processing more efficient; and adapt to healthier, eco-conscious diets. Above all, we’ll need to mitigate the impacts of climate and weather volatility on the food supply.
Some shifts towards a system that better supports well-being and growth are already underway: companies are ramping up efforts to reinvent their business models. In the accommodation and food services sector, we expect such efforts will cause US$188 billion of revenue to move among companies in 2025.
Capturing the value in the decade ahead
Businesses that grasp the full potential of the Feed domain will have the edge in 2035.
The extent of that growth will depend on how megatrends play out.
To obtain a quantitative picture of what the Feed domain might look like in 2035, we modelled the potential global economic impact of two of the most pressing megatrends: technological disruption (specifically disruption from AI) and climate change. The result is three divergent scenarios, corresponding to a range of outcomes, from a low of $9.85 trillion to a high of $10.83 trillion.
Sizing the Feed opportunity
The nature and scale of the new business opportunities that emerge in the Feed domain will depend on how AI adoption and climate action progress. Your strategy should account for a range of possible outcomes. Three scenarios can help leaders in the Feed domain consider what the future might bring.
Trust-Based Transformation
Global alignment | Responsible Tech | Sustainable Solutions
Responsible agricultural policies promote sustainable farming. Economic incentives encourage players—including consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies and retailers—to champion a shift to eco-friendly foods. New value pools form in production and processing, and digital technology providers dive in. Among the opportunities: transparency tools and smart crop-monitoring sensors. Food companies endeavour to lead in developing sustainably sourced products and lab-grown alternative foods.
Who succeeds?
An importer uses AI and data tools to improve product traceability, meeting robust demand from sustainability-focused food manufacturers and consumers. An urban professional receives fresh produce from community gardens, local vertical farms powered by renewable energy and a subscription service offering ethically sourced global products. A rural farmer adopts eco-friendly practices into their smallholding and, supported by trade deals focusing on environmental and social standards, exports sustainable goods worldwide.
Tense Transition
Regional alignment | Fragmented Tech | Subscale sustainability
Uneven agricultural production—alongside rises in regionalism and protectionism—forces compromises on sustainability in order to safeguard yields and maintain food security. Consumers prioritise food safety and affordability, paving the way for vertical farming and innovative urban agriculture. Food processors regionalise their supply chains to ensure market access, while leveraging affordable automation and digital platforms to fully utilise resources and reduce waste.
Who succeeds?
To buttress local food security, regional groups draw upon advances in mould- and pest-resistant technologies to build large-capacity storage facilities. A grain farmer, lacking access to the latest tech, relies on subsidised drought-resistant seeds and protectionist policies in order to compete. Regionalisation leads to price increases and inconsistent availability, and so a concerned parent turns to urban farms to satisfy their family’s weekly dietary requirements.
Turbulent Times
Atomised interests | Disruptive and divisive tech | Suspended sustainability
Resource imbalances between food and energy systems emerge as large-scale farms and energy companies vie for agricultural land. Amid relaxed environmental regulation, companies strive to become leaders in high-yield agriculture by enhancing their production processes. The use of agri-food data improves short-term productivity and crop yields, while large-scale automated food processing gains momentum.
Who succeeds?
A meat producer intensifies factory farming to meet demand, causing harm to human health and the environment. Tech entrepreneurs attempt innovative solutions such as lab-grown meat and insect-derived proteins, but high product costs still lead to food insecurity for low-income groups. An urban family turns to canning and other preservation techniques to counter rising prices and food shortages, while also engaging in food-sharing communities.
Learn more about the three divergent tomorrows
To reinvent for multiple tomorrows, take action today
The process of reinvention needs to start now, with a focus on priorities that respond to the reconfiguration that’s already underway. This means driving hard towards a set of innovation imperatives, securing competitive advantages in areas such as technology and trust, and turning obstacles such as climate threats into enablers of growth.
How to win in the Feed domain
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