A database of treatments for thousands of MS patients has led to an initial version of the PHREND predictive model. PHREND stands for Predictive Healthcare with Real-world Evidence for Neurological Disorders. In consultation with the patient, physicians can use this model to select the most appropriate therapy.
Physicians have a large number of different therapies available for treating multiple sclerosis (MS). As a result, they therefore often start with the most commonly used therapy. If the symptoms worsen, then they try the next one. The aim is to stabilise the progress of the disease. The patient’s condition no longer improves after a relapse, especially not in the second phase of MS. An ineffective therapy therefore means a permanent deterioration in the patient’s health. Physicians need information and experience from others working in the field so that they no longer base their choice of therapy solely on their own judgment. Patients also want a second opinion. They want to start immediately with the treatment that will be most effective.
PwC came into contact with a group of German doctors who had already been maintaining a database on the treatment of some 25,000 MS patients for the past 15 years. After extensive study of their figures, our data researchers came up with a predictive model, which also astonished the doctors. The model uses data from comparable patients to determine an appropriate therapy, based on factors such as age, gender, status of the disease, quality of life, side effects, and so on. The MS PHREND model is a dynamic one, meaning that new treatment data entered by doctors is integrated into the model, so that it is constantly improved.
MS PHREND was tested by German doctors in late 2017. Their experience was extremely positive. They use the information to test their own assessment and if desired share it with the patient as a second opinion. In 2018, the pilot project will be extended in Germany and may also be used in the Netherlands too. PwC intends developing this approach for other complex neurological disorders. The MS PHREND model is a successful example of predictive healthcare, in which data from a large group of patients leads to personalised medicine – each patient receives the therapy that suits him or her best. In this way, it supports value-based healthcare, in which unnecessary treatments and medication are avoided as much as possible.
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