One year ago the UK voted to leave the European Union. In the year that followed events have continued to surprise: from economic shocks that didn’t materialise to political messages that shocked. Downside risks have slimmed but remain present.
The outcome of the UK’s EU referendum last year took much of the world by surprise. A series of events followed in the immediate aftermath of the vote, and both the UK and the EU politics quickly realigned to face a new set of circumstances. In the UK a new Prime Minister and government were quickly put in place to take the country through the ‘Brexit’ process. The remaining EU 27 member states started to hold their first gatherings without the UK, and aligning their positions on the UK’s future departure from the EU. The first months following the vote felt for many like a period of great upheaval.
Yet, taking stock one year later, the fear of immediate negative consequences may now seem largely overstated. While the vote had an immediate effect on the exchange rate of the pound sterling and there was heightened market uncertainty, neither the EU, nor the UK were hit by apocalyptic economic shocks.
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