Facing mounting pressures: limited physical space, labour shortages, and environmental and infrastructural constraints demand the reallocation of scarce production factors towards activities that are productive, low in environmental impact, and less reliant on low value-added labour.
In March 2025 we published a study on 'Future-proofing the Dutch economy'. This report examines fifteen industries as part of the commercial sector, over the period 1995-2023 from three different perspectives: their position in the economy, their economic contribution and their reliance on scarce productive factors.
The industries that are most central, that make a significant contribution to the economy and that also have a limited reliance on scarce productive resources are the industries with the most potential for sustainable growth. Our analysis evaluates the retail industry through three analytical lenses: centrality, economic importance and dependence on scarce production factors. In addition, we also highlight the role that the retail industry plays in terms of helping to satisfy consumer needs; shaping consumer behaviour and, in doing so, driving wider social transition; influencing the structure and attractiveness of urban environments; and fostering a sense of community and vibrancy, and access to essential goods and services in many areas.
Centrality
This lens evaluates the sector’s role in national production flows. The retail industry ranks as the 9th most central industry and has pronounced production relationships with other specialised business services, information and communication.
This relatively low score is not surprising, as the industry is located at the downstream end of the value chain, closer to consumers. Hence, it plays a key role in serving customers who purchase products from a wide range of other industries, but this role is not entirely reflected in its centrality score, which is based on total value traded with other industries.
Economic Importance
The retail industry is the 9th largest in terms of economic size (share of GDP) and R&D spending, while it has had the 5th largest labour productivity growth over the past decades, albeit remaining at the 2nd lowest level.
With that, the retail industry needs to continue the good progress in boosting labour productivity, investing further in R&D, digitalisation, and optimisation of processes, while not forgetting about the focus on customers. Technology deepens polarisation: large retailers pull ahead; small ones fall behind.
Dependence on scarce production factors
Overall, retail performs relatively well in terms of using scarce production factors, ranking 6th (with one being best or lowest use). Retail itself is “clean” – sustainability strategy must focus on influencing supply chains, not internal operations. The only aspect in which the industry ranks low is its relatively large share of labour, as it is the 3rd largest employer despite ongoing labour shortages and rising wage costs. Labour availability is becoming a long‑term structural constraint, not a cyclical one.
Proximity to consumers, driving societal transitions, influencing urban environments, and fostering a sense of community
We highlight four additional roles that retail plays in the Dutch economy. Due to the industry's proximity to consumers, retail helps to satisfy consumer needs and wants through omnichannel offerings, where physical shops and online platforms are integrated. It also shapes consumer behaviour and, in doing so, drives wider societal transitions. Retailers can influence consumer behaviour at scale, e.g., nudging healthier choices, reducing plastic, promoting circularity. In addition, retail influences the structure and attractiveness of urban environments. Finally, the industry serves an important social function by fostering a sense of community, vibrancy, and access to essential goods and services. Retailtainment – blending retail with entertainment – is accelerating.
Download the analysis
Future-proofing the Dutch retail industry
