Closure of the Strait of Hormuz: impact on global supply chains and the Netherlands

Insights on disrupted inputs

For this PwC whitepaper, we selected for analysis the disrupted flows of seven key materials that are highly dependent on the Gulf region: helium, aluminium, fertilisers, methanol, glycol, industrial diamonds, sulphur, and graphite. We also interpret these insights to show sector-level impacts in the Netherlands. Rather than treating the shock purely as an energy issue, we identify how shortages of these inputs propagate throughout high-tech manufacturing, healthcare, construction, chemicals, and agriculture.

Healthcare and high-tech vulnerabilities

Helium serves as a good example of how quickly a niche input can become a systemic constraint. With a quarter to a third of global helium exports originating in Qatar, supply of this essential industrial gas is highly exposed to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Barbara Baarsma, chief economist at PwC, identifies immediate consequences for high-tech manufacturing in the Netherlands: “Producers of semiconductor equipment and precision machinery depend on ultra-pure helium for processes that have no viable substitutes at scale, and shortages result in production risks, delayed deliveries, and higher costs.”

Healthcare providers are likewise facing capacity constraints because helium is essential for cooling MRI scanners. Any interruptions to supply can reduce diagnostic capacity and increase waiting times.

Domestic and cross-border spillovers

Aluminium also shows how supply disruptions reverberate through an open economy. With roughly a quarter of globally traded aluminium linked to Gulf producers, shortages quickly tighten supply and raise prices. In the Netherlands, this impacts construction, automotive components, and packaging.

Baarsma explains that Dutch firms are facing rising input costs domestically, while international Dutch producers and traders are seeing margins being squeezed and delivery reliability deteriorating. “Because the Netherlands is a hub in European value chains, these pressures are being transmitted further across borders, amplifying inflationary effects.”

Multiple impacts on Dutch agricultural sector

Stuti Sethi, Director at PwC’s strategy consulting arm Strategy&, adds that, “Similar transmission mechanisms are at work in fertilisers and chemical feedstocks such as methanol and glycol, which feed into agriculture and the broader chemical industry. Disruptions here raise production costs and can lead to reduced yields as farmers apply fertiliser more judiciously. This has direct implications for one of the Netherlands’ most important export sectors. In addition, we expect these upstream decisions will ultimately push up food prices for consumers and lead consumers to trade down in their purchase decisions.”

Business exposure and strategic adjustment

For businesses, the implications are real and significant. First, they need to manage inputs that were previously considered operational commodities, such as industrial gases or intermediate chemicals. This requires building buffer stocks, diversifying sourcing, and, where possible, investing in recycling or alternative materials. Second, they need to reassess their position in global value chains: more than a temporary inconvenience, dependence on single routes or regions has become a structural vulnerability. Third, they need to act decisively on the most pressing risks, crafting specific strategies to ensure access and limit exposure.

As disruptions persist, businesses that adapt early, by redesigning processes, securing supply, and embedding resilience, are best placed to protect margins and gain a competitive advantage.