Consumer markets in transition: why focus and conviction matter

The market continues to evolve, with capital becoming increasingly selective and putting a greater premium on focus, conviction and preparation as we approach the final quarter of 2026. We assess current trends against the expectations we previously shared for 2026.

Setting the scene: spending holds up, but confidence has weakened

Inflation in the Netherlands initially declined but gradually increased again in recent months to above 3%. Household spending continued to grow in early 2026, supported by higher real disposable incomes as wages rose through collective labour agreements. At the same time, consumer confidence fell by around 50% in spring 2026, bringing it close to the historic lows seen in 2022. Confidence recovered somewhat during the summer, with June recording the largest monthly improvement in more than eleven years but remains below the level seen at the start of the year and well below the twenty-year average. The disconnect between spending and sentiment amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, points to an underlying fragility that dealmakers cannot ignore. 

2026 year to date: deal volumes flat, value driven by large transactions

This is consistent with the ‘K-shaped’ M&A dynamics highlighted in our earlier broader deals outlook, although consumer markets have proved more stable than sectors such as technology, AI and energy. 

M&A activity in the Netherlands across industries was broadly flat in H1 2026 compared with H1 2025, while total deal value remained broadly stable. Mid-market deal flow continues while the very largest transactions have slowed. In consumer markets, however, deal volumes were somewhat lower, while average deal values increased, driven by a small number of larger strategic transactions. This reinforces the shift towards assets that can sharpen portfolio focus, add scale or strengthen category leadership. The combination of US-based McCormick and Unilever's Dutch food businesses ($45 billion) is the most notable example and is consistent with Unilever’s continued portfolio rationalisation. This polarisation is shaping the Dutch outlook: buyers are prioritising resilient assets with category leadership, strong consumer relationships or greater control over supply chains. Assets without clear differentiation or a compelling strategic rationale, by contrast, are finding it harder to attract bids - this has become more pronounced than anticipated.

Themes driving deal activity: from outlook to reality

Our earlier 2026 outlook identified several themes expected to shape consumer M&A. Developments so far this year show how these themes are translating into deal activity.

Health and wellness as a deal driver

Consumers are increasingly focused on sugar reduction, plant-based eating, protein monitoring, and functional health solutions. PwC’s Voice of the Consumer 2026 research, surveying over 21,000 consumers across 27 countries including the Netherlands, confirms that health is becoming a continuous, consumer-led concern woven into daily routines. While GLP-1 medications, which are used for diabetes and weight loss, remain niche in the Netherlands, awareness is high. 77% of Dutch consumers know about these treatments and anticipated implications of increased usage for consumer spending will be widespread.

For buyers, health and wellness is more than a category theme. It creates M&A opportunities in better-for-you brands, functional nutrition, and other health-focused consumer businesses. Recent transactions illustrate the breadth of activity. Healthcare Brands Group has built a consumer-health platform in consumer health through multiple acquisitions, while Vitamin Well acquired Waterland-owned Empwr, a manufacturer of functional bars. FrieslandCampina has responded on this expected shift in consumer behaviour by acquiring the American company Wiscon Whey Protein to solidify its protein and probiotics market position. We expect continued interest as private equity and strategic buyers seek exposure to this fast-growing category.

Portfolio focus and scale in food and beverage

Companies are using M&A not only to transform and scale their businesses, but also to build more focused and adaptable portfolios. Refresco’s €674m acquisition of Canadian-listed SunOpta, a plant-based food business, shows how Dutch consumer companies are pursuing international scale in health-focused categories. In the ingredients space, Mane Ingredients’ acquisition of Dutch company Fromatech to strengthen its position in the Middle East and North Africa illustrates a related trend: access to specific ingredients and formulation capabilities is becoming increasingly important as consumer preferences evolve.

In food and beverage, M&A is increasingly being used to strengthen control over growth categories, formulation capabilities and international scale. The strategic value is not only in adding revenue, but in building portfolios that can adapt faster as consumer preferences shift.

Beauty: differentiation matters

Alongside health and wellness, buyers are increasingly interested in science-backed, premium, and professional beauty products. Brands able to demonstrate efficacy through clinical evidence or proprietary formulations are more likely to attract capital. Henkel’s acquisition of Olaplex in the first half of 2026 illustrates this direction. While geopolitical developments and consumer spending may affect transaction timing, we see continued potential for differentiated beauty businesses.

Retail follows the customer – and their data

Operating models are under pressure as consumers become more value-conscious and purchasing patterns change rapidly. E-commerce continues to outpace physical retail in the Netherlands, while discounters have gained further market share. Increasingly, the strongest retail deal rationale is about control of the customer relationship: access to demand signals, routes to market, loyalty data and the ability to follow consumers across channels, formats and geographies. The Mr Marvis transaction is a recent example. For buyers, digital capabilities and customer insight are therefore central to the value creation plan, rather than simply an operational add-on.

Succession creates new deal supply

A generation of founder-led and family-owned businesses is approaching transition, particularly in the Dutch market given its large base of family-owned food producers, retail chains, and hospitality groups. We expect more assets to come to market from owners seeking simplification, liquidity, or succession solutions. For buyers, the advantage will increasingly lie in relationship-led origination: identifying family-owned and founder-led businesses before a formal process begins, understanding succession motivations early and helping shape a credible transition story before valuation becomes the only conversation. Private equity exit pressure adds to the supply: holding periods have stretched to approximately 6.5 years, and some PE-owned consumer assets are reaching the limits of extensions.

Outlook: acting with conviction

Consumer M&A in the Netherlands is likely to remain selective through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027, but opportunities are emerging for buyers with focus and conviction. The lesson from recent years is clear: the environment is evolving rapidly, and ‘normal’ market conditions no longer exist. Waiting for the perfect moment risks leaving companies behind those that are prepared to act decisively.

For dealmakers, the advantage will go to those that build relationships early, pressure-test their value creation plan before approaching targets and are ready to move when must-have assets come to market. As more opportunities emerge from portfolio reviews, succession situations and shifting consumer behaviour, execution capability will matter as much as deal appetite. In a more selective market, preparation is not simply a defensive measure: it is what enables buyers to act with conviction when the right opportunity appears.